Canadian Lumber Duties Just Roughly Doubled: Why Your 2026 Deck, Fence, and Framing Quotes Are Climbing Again

If you priced a deck or fence a couple of years ago and just got a fresh quote, the sticker shock is real. A big reason sits in Washington, not at your local yard. In 2025 the U.S. Department of Commerce roughly doubled the combined duties on most Canadian softwood lumber, from about 14.4% to 35.19%. That softwood is exactly what your projects are built from: the SPF framing in a wall, the pressure-treated pine under a deck, the cedar in a privacy fence. The duty increase has been working its way into 2026 yard prices, and it shows up as a bigger material line on your estimate.

Here is the practical breakdown of what changed, what it costs in real 2026 dollars, and how to keep a contractor from quietly padding your bill while everyone blames "lumber prices."

What actually changed: AD, CVD, and the jump to 35%

The duties on Canadian lumber come in two flavors. Antidumping duties (AD) target lumber that the government determines is sold into the U.S. below fair value. Countervailing duties (CVD) offset subsidies the government says Canadian producers receive. Together they make up the combined rate that gets charged at the border.

In its sixth administrative review, finalized in summer 2025, Commerce raised both. For the non-selected producers that make up most of the Canadian supply, the antidumping rate rose from 7.66% to 20.56% (effective around July 29, 2025), and the countervailing rate rose from 6.74% to 14.63% (effective around August 12, 2025). Add them up and the combined burden went from roughly 14.4% to 35.19%, basically double. Commerce found dumping margins ranging from 9.65% all the way up to 35.53% across the producers it reviewed. You can read the official announcements from the Commerce Department on the antidumping results and the countervailing results, with the legal specifics and effective dates in the Federal Register notice.

The National Association of Home Builders has been blunt about who pays. The group describes the duties as "a tax on American builders, home buyers and consumers" and warned that a separate tariff could be stacked on top of the existing rate. That warning turned out to be accurate.

The 2026 twist: a duty cut that does not lower your price

Here is where it gets confusing in a way that matters for your wallet. A preliminary seventh review in 2026 actually cut the duty components, trimming the antidumping rate to about 10.66% and the countervailing rate to about 14.17%. On paper, that sounds like relief.

It is not, at least not yet. A separate 10% Section 232 tariff, added in October 2025, now sits on top of those duties. Net result: the effective combined burden stays near 34.83%, holding roughly steady through at least August 2026. As Wood Central reported, the duty cut and the new tariff essentially cancel out. For a homeowner, the headline is simple: the cost pressure on Canadian softwood is still around 35%, and the final version of that seventh review is not expected until late August 2026. The trade-press coverage from Woodworking Network tracks the same timeline, and the Congressional Research Service has a thorough background read if you want the full policy picture.

How a border duty reaches your local lumber yard

Duties get charged on imported Canadian softwood at the border. The species that dominate home projects are right in the line of fire: SPF (spruce-pine-fir) framing lumber, pressure-treated pine for ground-contact and deck framing, and Western red cedar for fences and premium decking. When the landed cost of those boards rises, distributors and retailers pass it down the chain, and the homeowner sees it as a higher per-board or per-square-foot price.

The backdrop numbers tell the story. Framing lumber sat around $872 per thousand board feet in January 2026 and was projected to spike roughly 5% in the second quarter, according to Gordian's tracked price data. At retail, that translates to roughly $5 to $8 for an 8-foot SPF 2x4. Pressure-treated pine runs about $4.50 to $7.00 per board foot in 2026, and Western red cedar runs about $6 to $9 per board foot. Those per-board numbers are the building blocks of every quote below.

Real 2026 numbers: a 150-foot privacy fence

A wood privacy fence in 2026 runs roughly $32 to $62 per linear foot installed, with a typical figure around $43, based on 2026 cost data from HomeGuide and corroborating per-foot ranges from Ergeon. Cedar, a popular choice for privacy fencing, lands around $35 to $40 per foot installed.

Run that across a common 150-foot project:

• Low end (around $35/ft): roughly $5,250 installed.

• High end (around $55/ft): roughly $8,250 installed.

That is a $3,000 spread on the same fence, and a meaningful chunk of the difference is material grade and the lumber market on the day you sign. Cedar pickets, taller panels, and premium hardware push you toward the top of the range.

Real 2026 numbers: a mid-size deck rebuild

For decks, the 2026 installed numbers break down by material. Pressure-treated decking runs about $25 to $40 per square foot installed, per Angi's 2026 data. Cedar decking runs about $30 to $50 per square foot installed. A typical deck project lands somewhere between $5,000 and $25,000 depending on size, height, and features.

Take a mid-size 300-square-foot deck. In pressure-treated pine, you are looking at roughly $7,500 to $12,000 installed. In cedar, closer to $9,000 to $15,000. On a wood deck, material and labor often split close to half and half, which is why a swing in lumber pricing moves the total noticeably. When a contractor tells you the quote went up since last season, the framing and decking boards are usually the honest part of that story.

When material outweighs labor, and why spring costs more

As lumber duties stay elevated, materials make up a larger share of the total on deck and fence quotes than homeowners are used to. That changes the math on timing. Retail lumber tends to run about 10% to 15% higher in March through June than it does in October through January, according to the 2026 outlook from O.K. Lumber Co. Spring is the building season, demand peaks, and prices follow.

The takeaway: if your project is flexible, getting boards bought in late fall or early winter can shave a real percentage off the material side. A quote you collect in April for an April build carries the biggest seasonal premium of the year.

Composite vs. wood: when composite finally pencils out

Composite decking and fencing have always cost more up front than wood. The gap narrows when lumber prices sit high and stay high, which is the situation in 2026. Composite is not subject to the softwood duties, its pricing is steadier, and it skips the staining and sealing that pressure-treated and cedar need every few years.

Composite makes the most sense when you plan to stay in the home long enough to bank the lower maintenance cost, when you are tired of re-sealing every couple of seasons, or when premium cedar pricing already puts wood within reach of composite. If you are building cheap and short-term, pressure-treated wood is still the lower entry price. Ask your contractor to quote both so you can see the real spread for your specific project rather than guessing.

Protecting yourself in the contract

With material prices this volatile, the contract is where you control your risk. A few things worth insisting on:

• Lock material pricing. Ask whether the quoted material cost is fixed or subject to change, and get the fixed version in writing where you can.

• Check the validity window. Many quotes are only good for a set number of days because lumber moves. Know your window so a delay does not reset your price upward.

• Understand material allowances. If the contract uses an allowance for boards or hardware, make sure the allowance reflects today's prices, not last year's, so you are not hit with an overage at the end.

Red flag: the vague "lumber surcharge"

Real duty increases give some contractors cover to pad a bill. Watch for a separate "lumber surcharge" line that is vague, percentage-based, and not tied to any documented quantity or invoice. A legitimate material cost should map to actual boards at actual prices. If a contractor cannot explain what the surcharge covers, or it appears after you have already received a per-foot or per-square-foot quote that should already include material, push back and ask for an itemized breakdown. "Prices went up" is a reason to re-quote transparently, not to bolt on a mystery fee.

Outlook: volatility through the building season

The next real marker is the final seventh review, expected in late August 2026, which will set where the antidumping and countervailing duties land. Until then, the 10% Section 232 tariff keeps the effective rate near 35%, and the usual spring demand surge piles on top. Expect elevated, choppy material pricing right through the 2026 building season. The smart play is to get firm written quotes, ask exactly what is locked, and time your purchase away from the spring peak if you can.

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Sources

• Commerce Department, Final Results of Softwood Lumber CVD Administrative Review

• Commerce Department, Final Results of Softwood Lumber AD Administrative Review

• Federal Register, Final Results CVD Administrative Review

• NAHB, Canadian Lumber Duties Hit 35%

• Wood Central, U.S. to Cut Canadian Lumber Duties by 10%

• Woodworking Network, U.S. Raises Anti-Dumping Duties

• Congressional Research Service, U.S.-Canada Softwood Lumber Trade (R48781)

• Gordian, Lumber Price Updates

• HomeGuide, Wood Fence Cost (2026)

• Ergeon, Wood Fence Cost 2026

• Angi, Pressure-Treated Decking Cost (2026)

• O.K. Lumber Co., 2026 Lumber Price Outlook

Note: This article contains AI-assisted content and has been reviewed by our editorial team.

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